2013 ArbCom candidates

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DanMurphy
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by DanMurphy » Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:17 pm

tarantino wrote:
DanMurphy wrote:
Alison wrote:Interesting to note some of the characters that are coming out of the woodwork to vote :evilgrin: :rotfl:
I thought there was some sort of tiny eligibility threshold (50 edits in the past 12 months or something). You can just stack up the socks and let fly? What fun!
The fifty-sixth person to vote, Gerard spouse Arkady Rose (T-C-L), has made only 52 edits in in the last 6 years.
She's quite the artist (adding this to an article on a dinosaur was one of her few edits in the past couple of years).

Image

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Michaeldsuarez » Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:54 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wikipedia_talk:Arbitration_Committee_Elections_December_2013&diff=583439937&oldid=583439523:
(ec)I've peeked into the config on request of [[User:Risker|Risker]] when she noticed the discussions here. There appears to have been a problem with the import on min edits (it was set somehow to 1, possibly misreading the xml config when it was imported because that was clearly set to 150). That setting has now been fixed. That said I do not know if that setting actually checks mainspace edits only (my understanding is that it only checks edits total but I may be wrong). On the blocked question I have no clue right now... the setting appears to be correctly set for that but clearly if people are getting through something isn't working. [[User:Jalexander|Jalexander]]--[[Wikimedia Foundation|WMF]] 21:17, 26 November 2013 (UTC)

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Vigilant » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:03 pm

Randy from Boise wrote:
tarantino wrote:
DanMurphy wrote:
Alison wrote:Interesting to note some of the characters that are coming out of the woodwork to vote :evilgrin: :rotfl:
I thought there was some sort of tiny eligibility threshold (50 edits in the past 12 months or something). You can just stack up the socks and let fly? What fun!
The fifty-sixth person to vote, Gerard spouse Arkady Rose (T-C-L), has made only 52 edits in in the last 6 years.
Only 128 edits to mainspace, career, so that vote won't count if the vote counters are doing their job.

Which is less than a sure thing, come to think of it.


RfB
Superflat Monogram (talk · contribs), Neonchameleon (talk · contribs), PaulCHebert (talk · contribs), and Arkady Rose (talk · contribs) [4]

are also ineligible with less than 150 mainspace edits. Reaper Eternal (talk) 21:02, 26 November 2013 (UTC)

Got those 4. GiantSnowman 21:13, 26 November 2013 (UTC)
Whoops!
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Vigilant » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:17 pm

How many times does David Gerard get to call wikipedia editors in good standing "vicious nutters" and "trolls" in his ARBCOM questions before he's desysoped and banned?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia ... /Questions

Come on, wikipedia. Police your own, for once.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cla68 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:42 pm

Randy from Boise wrote:
tarantino wrote:
DanMurphy wrote:
Alison wrote:Interesting to note some of the characters that are coming out of the woodwork to vote :evilgrin: :rotfl:
I thought there was some sort of tiny eligibility threshold (50 edits in the past 12 months or something). You can just stack up the socks and let fly? What fun!
The fifty-sixth person to vote, Gerard spouse Arkady Rose (T-C-L), has made only 52 edits in in the last 6 years.
Only 128 edits to mainspace, career, so that vote won't count if the vote counters are doing their job.

Which is less than a sure thing, come to think of it.


RfB
I thought the voting program automatically filtered out ineligible accounts? I guess not.

If David Gerard wins, I wonder if any of the arbitrators will petition Jimbo not to confirm him? The problem is, it likely was Jimbo who told Gerard to block Bagley's hometown in Utah and the staff of Overstock.com. So, Gerard has Jimbo over a barrel.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by enwikibadscience » Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:18 pm

Cla68 wrote:]

I thought the voting program automatically filtered out ineligible accounts? I guess not.
That would be easy as pie. No competent programmers?

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:22 pm

enwikibadscience wrote:
Cla68 wrote:]

I thought the voting program automatically filtered out ineligible accounts? I guess not.
That would be easy as pie. No competent programmers?
You have to ask this question?!?

RfB

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by enwikibadscience » Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:56 am

Randy from Boise wrote:
enwikibadscience wrote:
Cla68 wrote:]

I thought the voting program automatically filtered out ineligible accounts? I guess not.
That would be easy as pie. No competent programmers?
You have to ask this question?!?

RfB
:blink:

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Michaeldsuarez » Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:35 am

https://twitter.com/davidgerard/status/405463943671316480:
Wikipedia arbitration committee election is on! You need 150 mainspace edits. My bit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:David_Gerard#Arbcom_Election_2013 Vote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:SecurePoll/vote/360
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:David_Gerard&diff=583450614&oldid=577404220:
'''How I am voting:'''

;Support:
:Arthur Rubin
:Beeblebrox
:David Gerard
:Gamaliel
:Georgewilliamherbert
:Guerillero
:LFaraone
:Seraphimblade
;Abstain:
:28bytes
:Bwilkins
:Regentspark
;Oppose:
:AGK
:Floquenbeam
:GorillaWarfare
:Isarra
:Kww
:Kraxler
:Ks0stm
:NativeForeigner
:RichWales
:Roger Davies
:The Devil's Advocate
I hope Gerard's Twitter followers are smart enough not to use Gerard's votes as a guide to voting.

P.S. Has any candidate published voting guides / recommendations in the past while running? Has anyone ever drew attention to voting guides / recommendations via Twitter in the past? Gerard is testing the limits of unwritten codes of honor and integrity big time.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Wed Nov 27, 2013 5:23 am

Michaeldsuarez wrote:https://twitter.com/davidgerard/status/405463943671316480:
Wikipedia arbitration committee election is on! You need 150 mainspace edits. My bit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:David_Gerard#Arbcom_Election_2013 Vote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:SecurePoll/vote/360
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:David_Gerard&diff=583450614&oldid=577404220:
'''How I am voting:'''

;Support:
:Arthur Rubin
:Beeblebrox
:David Gerard
:Gamaliel
:Georgewilliamherbert
:Guerillero
:LFaraone
:Seraphimblade
;Abstain:
:28bytes
:Bwilkins
:Regentspark
;Oppose:
:AGK
:Floquenbeam
:GorillaWarfare
:Isarra
:Kww
:Kraxler
:Ks0stm
:NativeForeigner
:RichWales
:Roger Davies
:The Devil's Advocate
I hope Gerard's Twitter followers are smart enough not to use Gerard's votes as a guide to voting.

P.S. Has any candidate published voting guides / recommendations in the past while running? Has anyone ever drew attention to voting guides / recommendations via Twitter in the past? Gerard is testing the limits of unwritten codes of honor and integrity big time.
Uht-oh, I matched him on one (and only one) of his supports. Gerard is so fucking far off on All Things Wiki (and a WM-UK member to boot!) that I'm tempted to go revote.

Who cares if he campaigns during an election? It's an election.

RfB

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by TungstenCarbide » Wed Nov 27, 2013 8:25 am

The Devil's Advocate would make a wonderful complement to David Gerard on the arbcom. I therefore endorse him as well.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Poetlister » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:37 pm

If (hypothetically we hope) Gerard is elected, and so are some of the people he has publicly opposed, how will he work with them? That's why it was nuts to publish his votes.

And for those rooting for Gerard in the hope that it will be the end of Wikipedia - don't be daft; it won't be.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Triptych » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:39 pm

Vigilant wrote:How many times does David Gerard get to call wikipedia editors in good standing "vicious nutters" and "trolls" in his ARBCOM questions before he's desysoped and banned?
Yeah, truthtelling often has that outcome there. ;)
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by SB_Johnny » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:43 pm

Poetlister wrote:If (hypothetically we hope) Gerard is elected, and so are some of the people he has publicly opposed, how will he work with them? That's why it was nuts to publish his votes.
Perhaps he's just setting things up for his next appearance before the committee, when he can then demand that the sane ones recuse.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Michaeldsuarez » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:49 pm

Michaeldsuarez wrote:https://twitter.com/davidgerard/status/405463943671316480:
Wikipedia arbitration committee election is on! You need 150 mainspace edits. My bit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:David_Gerard#Arbcom_Election_2013 Vote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:SecurePoll/vote/360
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:David_Gerard&diff=583450614&oldid=577404220:
'''How I am voting:'''

;Support:
:Arthur Rubin
:Beeblebrox
:David Gerard
:Gamaliel
:Georgewilliamherbert
:Guerillero
:LFaraone
:Seraphimblade
;Abstain:
:28bytes
:Bwilkins
:Regentspark
;Oppose:
:AGK
:Floquenbeam
:GorillaWarfare
:Isarra
:Kww
:Kraxler
:Ks0stm
:NativeForeigner
:RichWales
:Roger Davies
:The Devil's Advocate
I hope Gerard's Twitter followers are smart enough not to use Gerard's votes as a guide to voting.

P.S. Has any candidate published voting guides / recommendations in the past while running? Has anyone ever drew attention to voting guides / recommendations via Twitter in the past? Gerard is testing the limits of unwritten codes of honor and integrity big time.
Did Gerard read my post? He inserted an excuse.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Triptych » Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:35 pm

SB_Johnny wrote:
Poetlister wrote:If (hypothetically we hope) Gerard is elected, and so are some of the people he has publicly opposed, how will he work with them? That's why it was nuts to publish his votes.
Perhaps he's just setting things up for his next appearance before the committee, when he can then demand that the sane ones recuse.
He was just doing a voter guide like anybody else, really. TDA is big enough to work with somebody who opposed him, probably some of the others there in Gerard's "oppose" column are too.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cla68 » Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:38 pm

Michaeldsuarez wrote:Did Gerard read my post? He inserted an excuse.
Yes, he is a faithful reader. In fact, you can tell who among WP's old hands are the most avid readers of this forum by how often they disparage it. Hi David! Isn't it about midday in the UK right now and aren't you supposed to be working?

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Captain Occam » Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:10 pm

DanMurphy wrote:She's quite the artist (adding this to an article on a dinosaur was one of her few edits in the past couple of years).

Image
In terms of accuracy, that isn't very good. Theropod dinosaurs' hip joints didn't allow their upper legs to rotate that far back without getting dislocated, and their necks are supposed to have more of an S-curve than that. I suppose having to settle for illustrations like these in dinosaur articles is the price Wikipedia pays for having banned Ferahgo.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by thekohser » Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:12 pm

Poetlister wrote:And for those rooting for Gerard in the hope that it will be the end of Wikipedia - don't be daft; it won't be.
But, we can be assured it will maximize the drama and comedy factor by at least 2x or 3x, so I'm still rooting!
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cedric » Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:25 pm

Captain Occam wrote:
DanMurphy wrote:She's quite the artist (adding this to an article on a dinosaur was one of her few edits in the past couple of years).

Image
In terms of accuracy, that isn't very good. Theropod dinosaurs' hip joints didn't allow their upper legs to rotate that far back without getting dislocated, and their necks are supposed to have more of an S-curve than that. I suppose having to settle for illustrations like these in dinosaur articles is the price Wikipedia pays for having banned Ferahgo.
Hmmmm--I thought something seemed wrong with that squirrelosaurus.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by EricBarbour » Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:56 pm

Cla68 wrote:
Randy from Boise wrote:
tarantino wrote:The fifty-sixth person to vote, Gerard spouse Arkady Rose (T-C-L), has made only 52 edits in in the last 6 years.
Only 128 edits to mainspace, career, so that vote won't count if the vote counters are doing their job.
Which is less than a sure thing, come to think of it.
I thought the voting program automatically filtered out ineligible accounts? I guess not.
She had a good number of edits oversighted, some by Gerard himself. Remember the "Ryung Doll" incident? No one else does.
The Magnificent Mr. Gerard wrote:(My partner, Arkady Rose, was in the Territorial Army, so in such a circumstance I'd sit back with popcorn.)
You, sir, are a complete tool. Anyone who really hated you could splash you and your "partner in the Territorial Army" in 10 seconds.
Consider yourself lucky that you're too pathetic and unimportant to be worth the effort.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Anroth » Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:53 pm

Cla68 wrote:
Michaeldsuarez wrote:Did Gerard read my post? He inserted an excuse.
Yes, he is a faithful reader. In fact, you can tell who among WP's old hands are the most avid readers of this forum by how often they disparage it. Hi David! Isn't it about midday in the UK right now and aren't you supposed to be working?
Did you ever get a straight answer if he was giving his blogging pal info?

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by drg55 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:31 am

Vigilant wrote:How many times does David Gerard get to call wikipedia editors in good standing "vicious nutters" and "trolls" in his ARBCOM questions before he's desysoped and banned?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia ... /Questions

Come on, wikipedia. Police your own, for once.

What happens to Gerard every time he reads the comments of the good folk at Wikipediocracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia ... om_Carrite
... I think a site run by and populated by justifiably-banned spammers, trolls and nutters is not arbcom's constituency.... Every time I make the mistake of looking at it I feel stupider afterwards.

Well at the risk of appearing stupid myself, on the one hand we are all "justifiably banned" which should save some workload for Arb Com, yet at the top of the page in the general questions he is saying:
Case by case. I suspect it's easier to avoid gross injustices with weaker sanctions.... More generally, it's time the arbcom gave justice consideration, rather than mere expediency. Shooting the hostage does solve the noise problem in a manner of speaking, but I think it's proving a terrible general approach.... The biggest problem with the arbcom is that it runs entirely without supervision. There is literally nobody watching the watchmen. This has led to capricious and abusive behaviour.
but hang on he just condemned us all at Wikipediocracy, isn't that a little "capricious"? I think out of the two responses, the calculated electoral statement and the off the cuff response, the second is more likely the truth.

"The biggest problem with the arbcom is that it runs entirely without supervision. There is literally nobody watching the watchmen." An interesting statement in itself but I'm guessing he sees himself in that role, if he gets back on to Arb Comm he will be the elder statesman who is really in charge. Suggestion to the other candidates, better get on to your twitter accounts.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Triptych » Thu Nov 28, 2013 12:21 pm

drg55 wrote: Well at the risk of appearing stupid myself, on the one hand we are all "justifiably banned" which should save some workload for Arb Com, yet at the top of the page in the general questions he is saying:
Case by case. I suspect it's easier to avoid gross injustices with weaker sanctions.... More generally, it's time the arbcom gave justice consideration, rather than mere expediency. Shooting the hostage does solve the noise problem in a manner of speaking, but I think it's proving a terrible general approach.... The biggest problem with the arbcom is that it runs entirely without supervision. There is literally nobody watching the watchmen. This has led to capricious and abusive behaviour.
but hang on he just condemned us all at Wikipediocracy, isn't that a little "capricious"? I think out of the two responses, the calculated electoral statement and the off the cuff response, the second is more likely the truth.
I'd suspect you're right. Mr. Gerard is lofty in his prepared statement, but run-of-the-mill in his snap judgment and broadbrushing when it gets closer to actual practice.

Take another look at TDA, doubters, you'll see he's addressing these comments more thoughtfully.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by drg55 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 12:54 pm

Michaeldsuarez wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wikipedia:Arbitration_Committee_Elections_December_2013/Candidates/David_Gerard/Questions&diff=583146889&oldid=583144927:
Newyorkbrad wrote:Do you consider it appropriate to have overtly promoted your candidacy in this election today on your Twitter feed?
https://twitter.com/davidgerard/status/404691757050249217:
David Gerard wrote:Wikipedia editors: Arbitration Committee elections open tomorrow. My answers to questions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration_Committee_Elections_December_2013/Candidates/David_Gerard/QuestionsHow-to-vote coming.
Emphasis mine. Gerard has over a thousand Twitter followers.
This is quite interesting and needs further investigation. Who are the 1016 twitter followers?

Gerard was asked in general questions: "4. Please disclose any conflicting interests, on or off Wikipedia, that might affect your work as an arbitrator (such as by leading you to recuse in a given type of case)." and he fluffed it. Can someone who is not blocked ask him to answer the question at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia ... _questions

I have mentioned that Gerard has a long history of attacks on Scientology and was a protege of Cyril Vosper an embittered ex member from the sixties, who found him when he was a student at a second rate college in Melbourne Australia. So he no doubt has extensive contacts in the anti-cult area, and possibly his twitter followers came across from Anonymous.

Without going off topic, "cult" is in general use a pejorative term, thus: "I support freedom of religion but I'm against cults" is equivalent to "I support civil rights but niggers are subhuman". In each case the usage is one of marginalising people. Cult is quite a respectable term in religious studies, in fact all religions are pretty much cults or were in their formative stages.

But in general "cult" is someone else's religion.

The list of cults is quite extensive in some countries showing how ignorant people can be. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government ... _and_sects

Sometimes there are more cults that religious groups, this was given as testimony to the Australian Parliament from an anti cult group: "there are many hundreds—if not more; perhaps
thousands—of groups operating within Australia ...would contravene all that freedom and democracy are about." If you don't react to the emotion and look at this, clearly the person saying it is completely nuts.

And so we come to the "anti cult" movement which sprang out of psychiatry and psychology, areas that have done there own share of brutal surgery electric shocks and drugging in brainwashing research and then have the nerve to attack religions. The anticult movement used to be involved in kidnapping and coercive counter conversion, until the jail sentences and law suits stopped that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult#Anti- ... eir_impact
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deprogramming

The anti cult movement is still kicking around and is perhaps getting most traction in certain european countries which themselves have long histories of religious persecution, one of the reasons America was founded, and these countries seem to particularly dislike new American religions. The Jehovah's Witnesses for instance were put in concentration camps by Hitler, and still have problems. In 1995 a French Parliamentary report listed them as a cult http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government ... .281995.29

This is the background that David Gerard comes from, why I described him like the KKK. Anti cult groups are hate groups.
So can someone ask Gerard to actually tell us what his off Wikipedia activities are and have been including was he involved in anonymous and what his anti cult connections are? And also who are his twitter crowd and what groups do they come from?

When I was editing Wikipedia articles on Scientology, I noticed that page view always went ballistic when I made edits, suggesting that there was discussion and coordination on another network (probably anonymous). This was before I got blocked for complaining about the background of Prioryman, and then had this upheld by Arb Com because even though his identity was publicly known, I "might" harass him, and then they didn't even release the details of their decision about me because they were "too busy". I subsequently on my own determinism declared the lot of them a suppressive group. TDA nearly became collateral damage in my case. I don't have a relationship with her, she didn't even answer my PM to her. All she did was have the decency to question what was going on and they nearly pasted her too. But anyhow vote for TDA as the Wikipediocracy candidate.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cla68 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:33 pm

Anroth wrote:
Cla68 wrote:
Michaeldsuarez wrote:Did Gerard read my post? He inserted an excuse.
Yes, he is a faithful reader. In fact, you can tell who among WP's old hands are the most avid readers of this forum by how often they disparage it. Hi David! Isn't it about midday in the UK right now and aren't you supposed to be working?
Did you ever get a straight answer if he was giving his blogging pal info?
Nope. He was full of righteous indignation at ArbCom over the incident until I pressed him as to if he was the one who provided Phil with my personal info. Then, he disappeared from the discussion.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Michaeldsuarez » Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:38 pm

@Cla68: I don't believe that interrogating Gerard is a good idea. It isn't any better than what Fae was doing to Roger Davies. Captain Occam's "tough questions" idea was lame, and I'm glad that nothing came of it.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cla68 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:48 pm

Michaeldsuarez wrote:@Cla68: I don't believe that interrogating Gerard is a good idea. It isn't any better than what Fae was doing to Roger Davies. Captain Occam's "tough questions" idea was lame, and I'm glad that nothing came of it.
Why don't you feel that it is a good idea?

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Michaeldsuarez » Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:37 pm

Cla68 wrote:Why don't you feel that it is a good idea?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotcha_journalism

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Anroth » Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:44 pm

The reason I ask is that if Gerard passed private info gained through his access of WMF servers from his authority as an admin, to a third party.. he has committed an offence under the UK's data protection act. It actually does not matter that neither you or the data in question are based in the UK. If he used tools to do so it should be trackable by someone with the appropriate level of authority.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by EricBarbour » Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:19 am

Anroth wrote:The reason I ask is that if Gerard passed private info gained through his access of WMF servers from his authority as an admin, to a third party.. he has committed an offence under the UK's data protection act
He has. He has done it many times, in fact. And unless you waterboard him, or get one of his pals to talk openly, that trail is ice-cold. You, and the Crown Prosecutor, will never be able to prove it.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Anroth » Fri Nov 29, 2013 8:32 am

I was looking into it after the french authorities dragged an admin in to delete stuff. Cla could probably send a correctly worded DSAR to WMUK as quite a few of their members have high level access. Remember what they told parliament? WMUK != WMF wouldnt be a defence. Best case he finds out who accessed his data and when, worst case hes out ten pounds (cost of a DSAR) and WMUK has to do a lot of explaining. One of the interesting quirks of DPA breaches is the cause of the breach can be held personally liable, even if its an institutional problem.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Poetlister » Fri Nov 29, 2013 9:12 pm

EricBarbour wrote:
Anroth wrote:unless you waterboard him
That wouldn't do much good. He'd probably enjoy it.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by The Devil's Advocate » Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:40 pm

Did a little review of the various voter guides and figured in how everybody ranks based on the number of support votes relative to the number of oppose votes.
  • 1. 28bytes
    2. GorillaWarfare
    3. Roger Davies
    4. AGK
    5. Seraphimblade
    6. NativeForeigner
    7. Floquenbeam
    8. Guerillero
    9. Ks0stm
    10. Gamaliel
    11. LFaraone
    12. RegentsPark
    13. Kraxler
    14. Beeblebrox
    15. Richwales
    16. Kww
    17. The Devil's Advocate
    18. Georgewilliamherbert
    19. Isarra
    20. Bwilkins
    21. Arthur Rubin
    22. David Gerard
28bytes is the only candidate no guide writer opposed and Gerard is the only candidate no guide writer supported. Of course, I used all the on-wiki guides and not all of them may be influential enough to be given much weight. Having said that, I think one can safely say that 28bytes, AGK, and Roger Davies are essentially guaranteed to win as one would expect given their status. GorrillaWarfare also seems to be very popular and a shoe-in, getting the most support from guide writers with only one oppose due to experience concerns. Seraphimblade, NativeForeigner, and Floquenbeam are all likely going to make their way into the Committee as well. Guerillero and Ks0stm stand a decent chance of making it, but they do have a bit of competition with Gamaliel, LFaraone, and RegentsPark all being fairly close up. Any two of those five could end up on the Committee, though Guerillero and Ks0stm have the best chance given their clerking experience and access to advanced privileges. Previous runs last year also make them known quantities who are able to build on past support. Gamaliel has a very large amount of indifference regarding his candidacy, 14 guides neither supported or opposed him, so it is less likely that he will make the cut. Beeblebrox and Richwales are probably going to end up in the middle and are not likely to make it to the nine.

Gerard's extremely low level of support, the only candidate with 19 opposes from the guides, is probably misleading since he has an inside track with certain segments of Wikipedia. I would expect Rubin to more likely be at the bottom of the vote as he does not have as much insider juice to cover for his recent controversies. Bwilkins is probably not going to be at the bottom but may end up with the second or third lowest amount of votes. Georgewilliamherbert is liable to be right towards the bottom as well, given his long period of inactivity. With non-admin candidates there is always that issue of how many will oppose simply due to being an admin and how many will support simply due to being a non-admin. Isarra does not get a lot of love from the guides, but she also does not get a lot of hostility. Given the joking nature of her candidacy, one cannot rule out a little bounce from humor votes and she is probably going to get some legit votes from people who actually admire her particular take on the issues. Kraxler seems to be poised to be the most successful non-admin candidate, though he will likely fail to break through to the nine as he would have to beat three of the four strong admin candidates ahead of him.

As far as myself, it seems I am in a bit of a dead heat with Kww. We are tied in number of supports though I have a couple more opposes from the guide writers. One thing I have going for me is that I probably have a bit of an outsider cred that other candidates lack and there is some enthusiasm behind me, which seems lacking with Kww. Not sure I could overtake Richwales or Beebs, but who knows.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Cla68 » Sun Dec 01, 2013 11:10 pm

I'm not sure how many voters use those guides. When I ran a few years ago I think I was supported by around 60% of the guide writers but I only received 40% of the vote.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Mason » Sun Dec 01, 2013 11:21 pm

The Devil's Advocate wrote:Did a little review of the various voter guides and figured in how everybody ranks based on the number of support votes relative to the number of oppose votes.
Nice analysis. I wouldn't be surprised if it shook out much like you described.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:16 am

Mason wrote:
The Devil's Advocate wrote:Did a little review of the various voter guides and figured in how everybody ranks based on the number of support votes relative to the number of oppose votes.
Nice analysis. I wouldn't be surprised if it shook out much like you described.
+1

This is a pretty close read.

The bottom 3 would seem to be:

Gerard, TDA, and Arthur Rubin in the cellar.

28bytes will finish with the most votes. He's probably going to join NYBrad in the Teflon-Arbs-Due-To-Actual-Competence club, I predict.


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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by EricBarbour » Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:22 am

Randy from Boise wrote:he's probably going to join NYBrad in the Teflon-Arbs-Due-To-Actual-Competence club, I predict.
And I predict quite a few people would disagree with placing "NYBrad" and "actual competence" in the same sentence. :D

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by The Devil's Advocate » Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:02 am

Cla68 wrote:I'm not sure how many voters use those guides. When I ran a few years ago I think I was supported by around 60% of the guide writers but I only received 40% of the vote.
True, but it can be a decent gauge of community attitudes and it likely has some influence. Barring any unforeseen revelations, I would expect the top 7 in that list to be on the Committee next year. On the last two spots there is some potential for lower-ranked candidates, though I would favor Guerillero and Ks0stm to win the spots in the end. The one-year slot would likely go to Ks0stm in that event.

Of course, this would mean the next year's ArbCom is going to have two tyr-*ahem* AE admins (Tim from last year and Seraphim from this year), three rookies (Gorilla, Guerillero, and Ks0stm), and a rogue admin (Floquenbeam).
Randy from Boise wrote:The bottom 3 would seem to be:

Gerard, TDA, and Arthur Rubin in the cellar.
Hey now, I don't expect to do amazing, but I have a hard time seeing Bwilkins do better than me when he has less support and is quibbling with people on the questions page.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:48 am

The Devil's Advocate wrote:
Cla68 wrote:I'm not sure how many voters use those guides. When I ran a few years ago I think I was supported by around 60% of the guide writers but I only received 40% of the vote.
True, but it can be a decent gauge of community attitudes and it likely has some influence. Barring any unforeseen revelations, I would expect the top 7 in that list to be on the Committee next year. On the last two spots there is some potential for lower-ranked candidates, though I would favor Guerillero and Ks0stm to win the spots in the end. The one-year slot would likely go to Ks0stm in that event.

Of course, this would mean the next year's ArbCom is going to have two tyr-*ahem* AE admins (Tim from last year and Seraphim from this year), three rookies (Gorilla, Guerillero, and Ks0stm), and a rogue admin (Floquenbeam).
Randy from Boise wrote:The bottom 3 would seem to be:

Gerard, TDA, and Arthur Rubin in the cellar.
Hey now, I don't expect to do amazing, but I have a hard time seeing Bwilkins do better than me when he has less support and is quibbling with people on the questions page.
Quoting myself, "Yes, Virginia, there is a cabal."

BWilkins will be close to making it, I'm guessing. I hope not.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Poetlister » Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:27 pm

EricBarbour wrote:
Randy from Boise wrote:he's probably going to join NYBrad in the Teflon-Arbs-Due-To-Actual-Competence club, I predict.
And I predict quite a few people would disagree with placing "NYBrad" and "actual competence" in the same sentence. :D
Well, it all depends on what you mean by competence. NYB has a great deal to commend him, albeit marred by weaknesses.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Triptych » Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:41 pm

It's an okay exercise to tabulate the various voter guides, but I'd suppose (or at least hope) people vote on other factors than that, for example having personally interacted with the candidates or having taken a little time to scan their contribution histories.

Roger Davies and AGK belong in in the "vote the bums out" category. They are standing arbitrators totally indicted by the Keystone Kops-style arbitrations this year, too awful and numerous to encapsulate here. As well I think the Manning arbitration and related fallout has angered the GLBT community that is aware of it and a lot of those folks are very active with good memories.

The idea that Beeblebrox and Bwilkins might get elected is disheartening, given their repetitive and historical verbal abuse of content editors. Beeblebrox is of course the "fuck off" official essay guy who has taken that part of his own advice on several occasions, recently "FUCK OFF YOU PETTY FASCIST IDIOT." Whereas Bwilkins incredibly unseemly pranced on a blockee's talkpage: "May you rot in the hell that is eternal block." Really? Elect these guys to relate to and lead the community? The possibility is undeniable though, shown last year where I think Beebs was first or second runner up. Beebs has benefited mightily from "courtesy deletions" of his most heinous remarks, the voters thus don't get to see that side of him.

I don't know who 28bytes is, so if he's a frontrunner I can't much object to that. Kraxler seems to be getting good reviews and as a non-administrator power content editor I'm all for that. Gorilla Warfare would bring some gender diversity, so cool for her. Are there any other female candidates? Are there any GLBT candidates? I was thinking David Gerard was one, but no he's got a wife, maybe I was thinking of someone else. Or maybe he's heterosexual GLBT supporter. Who else, I figure The Devil's Advocate is going to do better than he himself figures. If you read his statement and responses to questions you come away impressed.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Mon Dec 02, 2013 4:09 pm

Poetlister wrote:
EricBarbour wrote:
Randy from Boise wrote:he's probably going to join NYBrad in the Teflon-Arbs-Due-To-Actual-Competence club, I predict.
And I predict quite a few people would disagree with placing "NYBrad" and "actual competence" in the same sentence. :D
Well, it all depends on what you mean by competence. NYB has a great deal to commend him, albeit marred by weaknesses.
Fair enough.

Chief among these: he could and should be stronger as an ArbCom leader, helping to make sure that the cases which should not be taken are not taken.

Second: each and every member of the current ArbCom gets docked one full letter grade for lack of transparency in their day-to-day operations.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Mason » Mon Dec 02, 2013 4:36 pm

Triptych wrote:Are there any other female candidates?
Isarra is female.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by drg55 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:29 am

Mason wrote:
Triptych wrote:Are there any other female candidates?
Isarra is female.

I came to the conclusion that TDA is female based upon this discussion viewtopic.php?p=67830#p67830 and the icon, she is wearing a dress.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by The Devil's Advocate » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:31 am

drg55 wrote:
Mason wrote:
Triptych wrote:Are there any other female candidates?
Isarra is female.

I came to the conclusion that TDA is female based upon this discussion viewtopic.php?p=67830#p67830 and the icon, she is wearing a dress.
Well, uh, you came to the wrong one. I am a dude.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Randy from Boise » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:43 am

The Devil's Advocate wrote:
drg55 wrote:
Mason wrote:
Triptych wrote:Are there any other female candidates?
Isarra is female.

I came to the conclusion that TDA is female based upon this discussion viewtopic.php?p=67830#p67830 and the icon, she is wearing a dress.
Well, uh, you came to the wrong one. I am a dude.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Zoloft » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:21 am

Randy from Boise wrote:
The Devil's Advocate wrote:
drg55 wrote:
Mason wrote:
Triptych wrote:Are there any other female candidates?
Isarra is female.

I came to the conclusion that TDA is female based upon this discussion viewtopic.php?p=67830#p67830 and the icon, she is wearing a dress.
Well, uh, you came to the wrong one. I am a dude.
On the internet, nobody knows that you're a dog.

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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Triptych » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:40 am

Bwilkins (not his real name) says he's scared to go to meetups because one or another editor he's dumped on might show up and kick his wimpy little ass. In response to a question from Bazonka, he says "Although I have been invited to assist with off-line real world activities, I have consciously chosen to keep my Wikipedia work online. I don't see how that would change - some might actually consider the "risk" greater of being an Arbcom member and meeting an unhappy editor in real life."

So the ultimate tough guy administrator in his cyber persona is actually something of a quaking pansy in his real life.

It's too bad then that, if somehow elected, he won't be able to take the traditional arb perks like charity-paid vacations to the latest annual Wikimania exotic location.
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Re: 2013 ArbCom candidates

Unread post by Poetlister » Tue Dec 03, 2013 12:45 pm

Anyone who feels like that is crazy to stand for ArbCom. In fact, he's not too bright if he stays as an admin. There's a fair chance that sooner or later someone will "out" him and then where will he be?
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